نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه مهندسی صنایع، واحد علوم تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

10.22105/imos.2021.271975.1029

چکیده

هدف: این تحقیق باهدف طراحی یک سیستم خبره فازی نوین برای مدیریت ریسک سبد پروژه در پروژه‌های در دست اجرای یک هلدینگ همراه اول انجام‌شده است.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: برای این کار؛ برای شناسایی ریسک‌ها از روش دیمیتل توسعه داده‌شده در اکسل، برای ارزیابی و تعیین مهم‌ترین ریسک‌ها از روش‌های FMEA فازی در اکسل و روش AHP در نرم‌افزار اکسپرت چوییس؛ و برای انتخاب پاسخ ریسک بهینه از یک مدل ریاضی پیشنهادی و حل آن در نرم‌افزار گمز استفاده‌شده است.
یافته‌ها: یافته‌های تحقیق نشان داد 23 ریسک در پروژه‌های موردمطالعه وجود دارد که 8 تای آن‌ها از اهمیت و تأثیرگذاری بالا برخوردار بوده‌اند. همچنین اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌ها و تعیین سطح تأثیرگذاری آن‌ها با استفاده از روش تلفیقی AHP-FMEA انجام شد. مدل ریاضی پیشنهادی پس از کدنویسی و اجرا در نرم افزار گمز نیز توانست استراتژی‌های بهینه پاسخ به ریسک‌های مهم را انتخاب نماید.
اصالت/ارزش‌افزوده علمی: سیستم خبره فازی نوین پیشنهادی نیز از قابلیت و کارایی لازم برای مدیریت ریسک سبد پروژه و انتخاب استراتژی‌های بهینه پاسخ به ریسک در هلدینگ موردمطالعه، برخوردار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Design of A New Fuzzy Expert System for Project Portfolio Risk Management

نویسندگان [English]

  • Masoumeh Zahedi
  • Mohamad Khalilzadeh
  • Hasan Javanshir

Department of Industrial Engineering, Research Sciences Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Purpose: The aim of this study was to design a new fuzzy expert system for project portfolio risk management in ongoing projects of a first mobile holding.
Methodology: To do this; To identify the risks from the Dematel method developed in Excel, to evaluate and determine the most important risks from the fuzzy FMEA methods in Excel and the AHP method in Expert Choice software; And to select the optimal risk response, a proposed mathematical model is used and solved in Gamz software.
Findings: The research findings showed that there are 23 risks in the studied projects, 8 of which were of high importance and impact. Also, risk prioritization and determination of their impact level was performed using the integrated AHP-FMEA method. Findings obtained from solving and implementing the mathematical model in Gamz software also showed that the proposed model of efficiency and capability for selecting optimal risk response strategies is established.
Originality/Value: The general findings indicate that the proposed new fuzzy expert system also has the necessary capability and efficiency to manage the portfolio risk in the study holding.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk Management
  • Project portfolio
  • fuzzy expert system
  • Multi-Objective Mathematical Model
  • Developed dematel method
  • AHP method
  • FEMA Method
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