نوع مقاله : مقاله کاربردی

نویسنده

گروه مهندسی صنایع، واحد علی‌آباد کتول، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، علی‌آباد کتول، ایران.

10.22105/imos.2022.333095.1218

چکیده

هدف: در این پژوهش استراتژی های تصمیم گیرندگان داخلی و خارجی در برجام با استفاده از نظریه بازیها بررسی می شود.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: تصمیمات اتخاذ شده توسط سه شخصیت مرتبط در برجام شامل، رهبری ایران، دولت ایران و گروه (1+5) با استفاده از نظریه بازیها شبیه سازی و بر مبنای ساز و کار تئوری بازیها تحلیل و بررسی شده است. در بخش بیان مسله، اصولی پذیرفته می شود و بر اساس آن بازی طراحی می شود. برای ارزش دهی به پیامدهای بازی از روش AHP استفاده شده است. نرخ ناسازگاری پایین محاسبه شده برای این روش، نتایج ارزش دهی را قابل قبول توصیف نموده است. ورود به مذاکرات در قالب بازی ایستا با اطلاعات کامل بیان شده است و فرآیند توافق دو جانبه بصورت بازی پویا نشان داده شده است.
یافته‎‌ها: از دو جنبه به بازی پرداخته شده است، در بخش پیش بازی ماهیتا ورود یا عدم ورود به مذاکرات بررسی شده است. بررسی فرآیند بازی نشان می‌دهد ورود به مذاکرات یک رفتار راهبردی برای ایران و گروه (1+5) است. اما در بازی اصلی که استراتژی ها برای تصمیم‌گیری بررسی می‌شود. نشان داده شده است اعتماد بدون تضمین، نتیجه بازی را از شکل برد- برد به برد-باخت تغییر می دهد.
اصالت/ارزش افزوده علمی: درخصوص برجام نگرش های متنوعی وجود دارد، در این پژوهش فارغ از نگرش ها و جناح بندی ها، فرآیند کار، در یک مدل علمی و دارای ساختار راهبردی پیاده سازی شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation Decision Strategies in JCPOA based on Game Theory Mechanism

نویسنده [English]

  • Rouhollah Kiani Ghaleh No

Department of Industrial Engineering, Aliabad Katoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliabad Katoul, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Purpose: In this study, the strategies of internal and external decision-makers in Borjam are examined using game theory.
Methodology: The decisions made by three related personalities in JCPOA, including the leadership of Iran, the Government of Iran, and the group (1 + 5), were simulated using game theory and analyzed based on the game theory mechanism. In the problem statement section, principles are accepted, and the game is designed based on them. The AHP method was used to evaluate the consequences of the game. The low incompatibility rate calculated for this method describes the evaluation results as acceptable. Entering the negotiations in a static game is expressed with complete information, and the mutual agreement process is shown as a dynamic game.
Findings: The game is discussed from two aspects. The pre-game section examines the nature of entering or not entering the negotiations. Examining the game process shows that entering negotiations is strategic for Iran and the group (5 + 1). However, in the main game, strategies for decision-making are examined. Trust without guarantee has been shown to change the game's outcome from win-win to win-lose.
Originality/Value: There are various attitudes about JCPOA. In this research, regardless of attitudes and factions, the work process is implemented in a scientific model with a strategic structure.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Game Theory
  • International Negotiations
  • JCPOA
  • Nuclear Program
  • P5 + 1 Group
Abdolhassan Shirazi, H. (2016). Anatomy of the Iran-US nuclear talks until the UN general assembly and resolution 2231. International relations studies (journal of international relations), 18(30), 9-55. (In Persian). https://www.sid.ir/paper/247582/fa
Adediny Koshkoueieh, H., Masoudnia, H., & Goodarzi, M. (2021). The personality of donald trump and its impact on US foreign policy towards JCPA (based on ennagram theory). Scientific quarterly journal of political and international research, 13(48), 18-35. (In Persian). DOI: 10.30495/pir.2021.686748
Alexander, J. M., & Saaty, T. L. (1989). Conflict resolution–the analytic hierarchy process.‏ Praeger.
Attar, S., Rasouli Sani Abad, E. & Jorge, M. (2018). A study of the nuclear conflict between Iran and the P5 + 1 countries based on game theory. Strategic policy research, 7(27), 91-119, (In Persian). https://qpss.atu.ac.ir/article_9779.html
Bennett, P. G. (1995). Modelling decisions in international relations: game theory and beyond. Mershon international studies review, 39(Supplement_1), 19-52. https://doi.org/10.2307/222691
Dehshiri, M. & Mirkazemi, S. (2020). Scenarios for the Islamic Republic of Iran in the face of Barjam after the withdrawal of the United States of America. Bi-quarterly journal of Iranian futurism, 5(1), 163-187. (In Persian). https://www.sid.ir/paper/954331/fa
Emami Meibodi, A., Abdoli, G., Taklif, A., & Morshedi, B. (2015). Economic modeling of the regional polices to combat dust phenomenon by using game theory. Procedia economics and finance, 24, 409-418. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00697-8
Farid, A., Nikomanesh, A. & Bahraminejad Moghvieh, A. (2016). The relationship between the mustache denial rule and the Barjam agreement (interaction or conflict). Political science quarterly, 16(53). 1-16. (In Persian). https://psq.karaj.iau.ir/article_680152.html?lang=en
Firoozi, F., & Safari, E. (2020). Return of the United States to the comprehensive joint action plan (CJAP); Do's and Don'ts. The first conference on law, political science and humanities, Brussels, Belgium. Civilica. (In Persian). https://civilica.com/doc/1217598
Gao, Y., Li, Z., Wang, F., Wang, F., Tan, R. R., Bi, J., & Jia, X. (2018). A game theory approach for corporate environmental risk mitigation. Resources, conservation and recycling130, 240-247.
Gasemi, H., Niroumand, L. & Mirzakhanian, A. (2021). Discourse analysis of al-arabiya persian news sites and sada-e azadi news agency in the news coverage of "reducing Iran's Barjami commitments". Quarterly journal of interdisciplinary communication and media studies, 6(2), 89-116. (In Persian). http://imrl.arc.irib.ir/article_149592.html
Goldani, M. (2019). Explaining the pattern of optimal behavior J. (2019). Iran in confrontation with the United States. Interdisciplinary studies of strategic knowledge, 9(37), 114-142. (In Persian). https://journals.sndu.ac.ir/article_870.html
Habibi, H. & Amiri, M. (2020). The nature of barjam dispute resolution mechanism, quarterly. Journal of public law studies, 50(3), 1215-1238. (In Persian). https://jplsq.ut.ac.ir/article_75611.html
Kahrazeh, Y. & Arasteh, A. (2021). A study of Iran-Europe relations before and after the us withdrawal from Barjam. Specialized quarterly journal of political science, 17(56), 100-118. (In Persian). https://civilica.com/doc/1418091/
Misaei, G., Dinparast, F., Jafari, M. & Golestan, M. (2017). Media diplomacy and nuclear negotiations of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Culture studies–communication, 18(38), 133-154. (In Persian). http://ensani.ir/fa/article/download/378831
Mosallanejad, A. (2015). The impact of sanction policy on iran nuclear negotiations. Geopolitics, 11(3), 1-32. (In Persian). https://www.sid.ir/paper/116114/fa
Nwulu, N. I., & Xia, X. (2015). Implementing a model predictive control strategy on the dynamic economic emission dispatch problem with game theory based demand response programs. Energy, 91, 404-419.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.08.042
Ranjbar, M. (2004). US-British competition in Iran and the movement for the nationalization of the oil industry. Comprehensive humanities portal, 20. (In Persian). http://ensani.ir/fa/article/9724/
Saaty, T. L. (2001). Fundamentals of the analytic hierarchy process. In The analytic hierarchy process in natural resource and environmental decision making (pp. 15-35). Springer, Dordrecht.
Sajedi, A., Ghorbani Sheikh Nashin, A. & Bazgir, M. B. (2021). Intensification of US unilateral sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran during the Cavid-19 outbreak. Political knowledge, 17(1), 87-108. (In Persian). http://ensani.ir/fa/article/download/458552
Salehi, A., Dehshiri, M. R. & Haji Mineh, R. (2020). Scenarios for the Islamic Republic of Iran in the face of Barjam (Trump and Biden). Strategy quarterly, 29(97), 131-163. (In Persian). https://www.sid.ir/paper/952483/fa
Samiee Esfahani, A., & Khodabakhshi, H. (2020). Ninth and tenth parliament of Iran and nuclear diplomacy; with emphasizing on JCPOA. Political strategic studies9(34), 175-207. DOI: 10.22054/qpss.2019.42022.2309
S‌e‌p‌a‌h‌i C‌h‌a‌v‌o‌s‌h‌l‌o‌u, A., A‌r‌s‌h‌a‌d‌i K‌h‌a‌m‌s‌e‌h, A., & N‌a‌d‌e‌r‌i, B. (2019). U‌s‌i‌n‌g g‌a‌m‌e t‌h‌e‌o‌r‌y f‌o‌r m‌o‌d‌e‌l‌i‌n‌g o‌f g‌r‌e‌e‌n s‌u‌p‌p‌l‌y c‌h‌a‌i‌n s‌t‌r‌a‌t‌e‌g‌i‌e‌s w‌i‌t‌h g‌o‌v‌e‌r‌n‌m‌e‌n‌t d‌e‌c‌i‌s‌i‌o‌n m‌a‌k‌i‌n‌g; 3-p‌l‌a‌y‌e‌r m‌o‌d‌e‌l. Sharif journal of industrial engineering & management, 35.1(1.2), 15-24. (In Persian). http://sjie.journals.sharif.edu/article_21327.html?lang=en
Shah Rezaei, F., Shafiei, N., Dehshiar, H. & Shafiee, H. (2021). Explanation of the behavior of the european :union: towards JCPOA. Quarterly journal of political research in the Islamic world, 11(3), 25-53. (In Persian). https://priw.ir/article-1-1560-fa.html
Valizadeh, A. (2011). Approaches and theories of sanction efficiency in international political economy. Journal of the faculty of law and political science, 41(1), 349-365. (In Persian). https://www.sid.ir/paper/110356/fa
Yaghoubi Zanjani, M., Khatib Shad, S. & Meshbaki Esfahani, A. (2020). A study and explanation of resistance economy in the post-Barjam period with an approach to jihadi management. Quarterly journal of progress and excellence studies, 3(2), 1-13. (In Persian). http://ensani.ir/fa/article/download/460245